Reply #4: Up 15 to 20?

[GiovanniC]

Honestly, almost everyone who is going to vote is solidified in their opinion. This election is different from others. People are very strongly for or against either candidate. There aren't many undecideds. When the polls are 47-47, there's only 6% to wiggle around with. Even if you can scrape a few percentage points from your opponent, you still aren't going to get a bounce like what you're talking about.

Also, keep in mind that the Gallup "likely voter" group seems to be heavily tilted right. Furthermore, keep in mind that certain circumstances (like "Fahrenheit 9/11") have convinced people to vote who otherwise wouldn't have voted at all (and would therefore not have been considered a likely voter). I know many people (particularly young people) who fit into this category.

The Rove-wing WANTED expectations to be high, to make a 4- or 5-point jump (what Newsweek is reporting) look disappointing.