Reply #8: Given what Bush has done in his four years

[GreenArrow]

it amazes me that 47 percent of the voters are still willing to pull the lever for him. I understand your analysis; I just don't understand how people can be so stupid. I'm not suggesting that Kerry should get a 15-20 percent bounce from the convention; I'm just dissapointed that 65 to 75 percent of this country doesn't want to repudiate the policies and direction of the Bush regime. That this election appears to be this close is not heartening. If this election is really this close, we have bigger problems than a bad president.

I find it hard to believe that anyone who voted for Gore last time will be voting for Bush this time, and conversely, it would seem to me that a lot of conservative and moderate Democrats who jumped ship and voted for Bush last time will vote for Kerry this time. Nader will get less than one percent, I think. Approximately 20 percent of eligible black voters vote; in 2000, Gore got about 90 percent of the black vote. If black voters, most of whom have no reason to vote for Bush, could mobilize to a 30 or 40 percent turnout, Bush would have no chance. The numbers are there, but due to the rightward drift of the party, perhaps black voters don't want to bother. Of course, these potential voters are not included in the polls.