Reply #74: I responded to the literal language of your post.

[Ms. Toad]

(which I quoted) "as a father, that I feel better knowing exactly where the only child molester in our zip code lives."

Only = no others. The logical conclusion of the statement I quoted is that you believe there are no other child molesters in your zip code. Unless you live in a zip code with a minuscule population it is highly unlikely that the only molester living in your zip code was caught. That is the danger I was trying to point out - the belief that the only molesters around are the ones that have been caught (and adjudicated).

You may not have meant it literally, but there are plenty of others who unfortunately do believe it literally. In addition, the fact that you said it - and apparently still do not recognize the implications of what you said - illustrates how insidious the problem is.

With respect to statistics - I said it had been a long time since I had looked at them, and I can't quickly find my sources from around 15 years ago, but I found enough on line to support the point I was making:

A 2000 study found it was 16 years from first offense to detection: http://www.nicic.org/downloads/pdf/2001/sexoff-files/FacSec1Offenders-Programs.pdf

Abel (1986) "studied 240 child molesters (pedophiles). They averaged 30 (homosexual or same-sex) to 60 (heterosexual) victims before being caught." http://www.ktk.ru/~cm/stat2.htm, http://ambercenter.org/bills_statistics.htm

That's victims, not offenses. In my previous post I deliberately said offenses, not victims. Most pedophiles molest their victims more than once. Given an average of 1.6 offenses per victim found in one study (http://www.ktk.ru/~cm/stat2.htm - 533 offenses with 336 victims), that makes 48-95 offenses before being caught. My recollection (and the example I threw out of someone committing 75+ molestations who had not yet been caught) appears not to have been too far off, particularly given that heterosexual molestation is much more prevalent than same sex molestation.

My response had nothing to do with "cherished beliefs," nor was it emotional or illogical. My statement of the risks was based on your statement quoted above (and other less precise expressions of the same sentiment elsewhere in the thread) and on more than a decade of personal experience and research. It comes from spending far too many hours holding 2-10 year olds who were spread eagled on hospital emergency rooms beds while doctors attempted to get a semen sample without having to resort to a full pelvic exam under general anesthesia. It also comes from comforting guilt-racked parents who warned their children about the identified molesters, but ignored their children's complaints about how icky it felt when (insert your favorite parent/friend/neighbor/teacher/priest here) kissed their child or held their child on his/her lap - and those experiences were later revealed as the beginning of an extended period of abuse.

You may be savvy enough to realize you have to teach your children ways to be aware and to protect themselves from any touch their gut tells them is harmful, rather than focusing on avoiding specific people. Unfortunately, my experience tells me that there are far too many parents who exclusively take the latter approach - and Megan's Law encourages it by allowing people to believe they know "exactly where the only child molester in our zip code lives."

Megan's Law increases the risk that there will be more children like the ones I spent so many hours with. Because of this I make it a habit to point out the dangers associated with Megan's Law - particularly when I find the danger articulated as well as you (apparently inadvertently) articulated it.

I don't really think that it is appropriate to "lighten up" on this particular matter. The long terms effects are devastating, including a substantial risk that the 1/4 girls and 1 in 5-7 boys who are molested before reaching adulthood, particularly those who are repeatedly molested, will learn from this experience to be lifelong victims or molesters. If my comments help refocus one parent from person centered child safety education to comprehensive child safety education, which focuses on helping children recognize and trust their gut feelings and giving them permission and skill-sets to act on their feelings, it will have been worth whatever annoyance your slip of the fingers on the keyboard (and my response to it) appear to have caused you.