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10,000 Dow won't cut it, and Rove is smart enough to know that.
The key number is SECOND quarter closing number in the re-election year minus second quarter closing number in the election year. If that's a positive number, it helps the incumbent; if it's negative, it hurts.
The reason the second quarter close is more important than the third is that the third closes too close to the election to radically alter general public perceptions.
Rove needs the Dow to be at 11,500 or even 12,000 for it to be a meaningful positive.
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