Reply #15: Upset Predictions

[mndemocrat_29]

Presidential-Trailing in the polls, President Bush's grasp on the Solid South collapses, with Georgia, North Carolina, Louisiana, West Virginia, Virginia, and Arkansas all going to the Democrats, handing them a strong win.

Gubernatorial-Though not a great upset, Claire McCaskill bests Gov. Bob Holden and wins the governor's seat handily.

Senatorial-Blessed by the Democratic sweep, Eric Fingerhut bests Sen. George Voinovich for a Senate seat by a margin of less that one percent(ala Maria Cantwell in 2000). Fingerhut joins Nancy Farmer, Tony Knowles, Jonathan Miller, and Joe Hoeffel as the fifth Democrat to beat a Republican incumbent. Along with winning an open seat in Illinois, Democrats hold open seats in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

House-The Democrats, blessed with a tidalwave of support, not only pick up several open seats (PA-15, FL-15, FL-16), but also knock out record amounts of incumbents. Longtime incumbents like Reps. Jim Leach, Jim Nussle, Anne Northrup, Denny Rehberg, Robin Hayes, Rob Simmons, Mike Ferguson, and Shelley Moore Capito, along with freshman representatives Bill Janklow, Rick Renzi, Katherine Harris, Ginny Brown-Waite, Max Burns, Phil Gingrey, John Kline, Steve Pearce, and Jim Gerlach. The two biggest shocks of the night were the ousters of Reps. Peter King, Nancy Johnson, and Clay Shaw, all of whom live in Democratic districts. All three were swept away by the Democratic tidalwave. Nancy Pelosi is set to become the first female speaker.