Today Marks 50 Years Since Hubbert Predicted US Production Peak

[hatrack]

Today marks the fifty year anniversary of M. King Hubbert’s seminal speech in which he accurately forecasted the 1970 peak of United States oil production. Few heeded Hubbert’s warning at the time and many - notably including high ranking officials the United States Geological Survey and industry - actively sought to discredit his work. The lack of preparation on the government’s part set the United States up for the oil shocks of the 1970’s and egregious dependence on foreign oil that we experience today.

Hubbert (1903-1989), a distinguished geophysicist, first developed his peak oil theory in the middle 1930s. He first advanced these ideas at the 1948 American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) convention. Hubbert was "swamped with mail, universally favorable" after the 1948 speech was printed a year later. But it was hardly noticed by the petroleum industry even though it was little different from the 1956 version that caused uproar. Hubbert could be more specific in his 1956 analysis because of additional data and he predicted US crude production would peak in 10-15 years. This conclusion, which was almost universally considered outrageous at the time, proved startlingly accurate.

In honor of M. King Hubbert’s courageous stand, Post Carbon Institute is hosting an online tribute featuring interviews with contemporaries and successors of Hubbert. The tribute provides a rare glimpse into the life and times of M. King Hubbert, the grandfather of the peak oil movement. The tribute features interviews with his nephew Michael Hubbert and former Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall. The tribute includes Hubbert’s Successors I, the first of series of compilations of brief audio commentaries. Hubbert’s Successors I features Roscoe Bartlett, Richard Heinberg, Albert Bartlett, Megan Quinn, Pat Murphy, Walter Youngquist, Ron Swenson, Kenneth Deffeyes, Matthew Simmons, Stewart Udall, Jan Lundberg, Colin Campbell and Steve Andrews. "There is not other single name so connected with energy and oil as M. King Hubbert," says U.S. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD). "His pioneering work has been quoted by just about everyone who is interested in the subject. His influence cannot be overestimated. He was a giant."

The tribute also includes a Hubbert bibliography, a narrative of the events surrounding the speech and other milestones in Hubbert’s life, and previously unavailable images. The tribute will be updated regularly for at least the next year. Features to be posted soon include an interview with Hubbert historian and interviewer Ronald Doel and previously unavailable video footage of a conversation with Hubbert, as well as Hubbert’s Successors II compilation.

EDIT

http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=communique&newsid=11265&url=