The coming Natural gas problem..

[4dsc]

http://www.npc.org/

These comments are taken from the oildrum..

Click on the natural gas link and look below the book at the top with the blue flame..."Balancing Natural Gas Policy"....For "Volume I, Summary of Findings and Recommendations", it is a large PDF file, but well worth the download.

We are in danger of facing a major natural gas shortfall between now and 2010 unless demand levels or drops (weather and outsourcing of nat gas intensive industries are the two huge factors on demand

Despite the claim that "enviro/green wackos" are the cause of the problem, the report takes the position that even if all "moratoria areas" are thrown open (they used a projected opening of all moratoria areas by 2006, which of course has not occured) we still face a large natural gas shortfall due to domestic U.S. production declines, Canadian production declines, and rising demand

LNG is the only large scale "bridge" supply that can be brought on fast. The Alaska nat gas pipeline will take years, and a very high price for nat gas must be maintained to make it viable. Unconventional supplies, even if developed rapidly, produce at slower rates than conventional supplies and are expensive to this point.

Now, here's the shocker. If demand continues at the current rate of increase, even LNG...IF IT IS IMPLEMENTED ON SCHEDULE, will fail to make up the shortfall. We know of course that the LNG plan is behind schedule, with lawsuits and bitter local opposition on safety concerns, increasing concern about where that much nat gas will come from, and financial backing pulling out of deals (the Florida Power and Light withdrawal from the Bermuda terminal and pipeline being the biggest example)

The principle conclusion is this: We must develop all the possible options listed above, and then on top of that, have SUBSTANTIAL DEMAND DESTRUCTION of natural gas demand to avoid a major shortfall.