Reply #21: No, it's a combination of factors, starting with the Iraq war and the Katrina confiscations.

[benEzra]

A lot of ammunition makers got subcontracted to the major military ammo makers to provide ammunition for the war in Iraq, and as a result shifted their production lines over to military-contract ammo.

That didn't start to cause a shortage until the Katrina debacle in New Orleans, which involved ammo sales suspensions and illegal door-to-door confiscations by the DEA, California Highway Patrol, and some rogue Oklahoma National Guard units. That got a lot of people to thinking that having just a box or two of ammunition on hand for their preferred firearm probably wasn't enough, and the supply of popular defensive calibers started to get really tight, prices increased sharply, and availability went down. I'd say it was some time between mid-2007 and early 2008 when demand started outstripping supply, and THAT caused people to start paying more attention to the ammo supply situation.

THEN the gun prohibitionists started circulating model legislation to require serialization and tracking of all new-production ammunition all the way to the end user, usually including a ban on legacy ammo by a certain date. Such a scheme would drive availability WAY down and prices WAY up, so that increased "just in case" sales.

THEN the economy tanked, Great Depression II/Peak Oil became at least a possibility, and having a bit more food, water, and ammunition on hand started to seem like a good idea, whether as a hedge against hyperinflation or against increased crime, take your pick. More concerned people buying ammo.

Finally, the election, since which the MSM and the repubs at the Brady Campaign have been crowing that the Obama administration is going to give them their precioussss ban on the most popular civilian rifles in America. I do NOT think Obama is foolish enough to try to resurrect the "assault weapon" bait-and-switch, but there are those in his administration who do favor it (Holder, possibly Clinton, probably Biden), and the BC and MSM are beating the drum for it. So millions of people who thought they might like to own a small- or intermediate-caliber "black rifle" someday decided to get one sooner rather than later, as a hedge against the possibility of a future ban. A lot of those are first-time buyers (including a lot of Dems, FWIW). Those ban concerns triggered perhaps the biggest run on guns in recent U.S. history, and of course gun buyers are buying ammunition as well.

As a result of THAT, John/Jane Q. Citizen goes to Wal-Mart or his local sporting goods store emptied, and the ammunition manufacturers backordered. So he/she decides to buy extra when the ammunition does come in; more demand.

All in all, it's pretty much a perfect storm as far as ammo availability---the war, crises, and the MSM obsession with new bans.