Reply #16: 60/40* Likud over Yisrael Beytenu in chance of winning next PM

[Poll_Blind]

Here is a brief message showing the results of the last election, showing just how close Lieberman's party came to pushing Likud to the side. I'm not bothering to pull up the links but it should be fairly easy for anyone to find out that, based on polls, if elections were held any time in the last 3 months in Israel, Likud would win.

   Kadima, has several choices which are almost equally-likely given the fluid nature of Israeli political parties and Olmert's disasterously well-deserved reputation. It can either offer Olmert again, offer up another choice or dissolve.

:bluebox: Olmert would kill his own party if he tried to run again and it's likely that those who formed Kadima (~125 members of Likud left to form Kadima with Sharon, Olmert and Livni)would not want to stay for a Nantucket Sleighride where Olmert is both the whale and the whaler. In this case, I'd predict a Likud win, but very close with Yisrael Beytenu.

:bluebox: Tzipi Livni is a very popular and physically-attractive politician in Israel and if Olmert can swallow his pride, she might have a shot at keeping the party together by running next time. But what platform, exactly, would she run on? Kadima's torn it's own "milder" platform to shreds. She should have taken over when Sharon died (she is one of the, if not the most trusted politican in Israel according to polls within the last few years) but she does not have that dangly bit of flesh between her legs and so acquiesced, quietly, so that Olmert could step forward. Even though I don't like any of their policies, Tzipi would have been a much better choice, certainly a much more stable one, for Kadima after Sharon. Do not underestimate the power of the penis in right-wing Israeli socio-political culture though anyone in Kadima not convinced Livni is the only choice for Kadima is, pun intended, a schmuck. If this is the case, Kadima could win again, though it would be a vicious three-way battle with Likud and Yisrael Beytenu.

:bluebox: If Kadima dissolves, who knows? It all depends on where their membership drains to. Remember Kadimites are arguably there just as much (or more) for a dislike of Bibi's heading of Likud as they are on the settlements issue. If Kadima dissolves it's very difficult to tell whether the majority of ex-Kadimites would rather go to Lieberman's party which is farther right than Likud but also a new dymanic, masculine patriarchial party (with Lieberman always and forever at the top), go back to Likud, or fragment entirely based on their shattered experiment. Magic 8-ball says "Need more information", every time.

  * A word about Yisrael Beytenu even though all of my predictions show a non-Yisrael Beytenu win: Avigdor Lieberman's campaign was helped immeasurably by a shadowy Republican strategist from America named Arthur J. Finkelstein. He's sort of the Keyser Soze of campaign officials and if you think Karl Rove is big leagues, he's small peanuts to Finkelstein. Anyway, Finkelstein helped Lieberman create the very successful "Nyet Nyet Da" campaign (among other things) and if Finkelstein works for Lieberman in a PM run it could be just enough to help him squak to a win in a couple of cases.

PB