Reply #27: That Is, Sir, How Most Hope Matters Will Develope

[The Magistrate]

But unfortunately, pessimism in this matter has proved a better predictor over the years than optimism, and a sound appreciation of the motivation of leading players is indispensible. It seems to me that Sharon wishes to retain as much of the Jordan Valley as he can contrive, and to prevent the emergence of any real viable sovereign state of Arab Palestine. It also seems likely to me that a majority of the people of Israel feel otherwise, though a hard knot among them agree whole-heartedly with his aims, and it remains to be seen which will prevail. In democracies, a loosely committed majority does not always prevail over a highly motivated minority.

One element in your comments deserves a particular response. It is my view that the sooner an actual Arab Palestinian state is established, the better it will be for all concerned. A state authority will have a better chance of actually controlling private militant elements than an entity which, when all is said and done, is merely one more faction in an armed melange, albeit possibly a more numerous one with a greater armament. It seems to me that the establishment of such a state would do much to soothe the feelings of the people of Arab Palestine, restoring to some degree their pride, and thus tend to reduce the popular support enjoyed by the "ultra" factions, and so make it more difficult for them to operate. The deliniation of the borders of such a state would have a most salutory effect, by putting paid to expansionist desires on both sides of whatever boundary was fixed: any boundary fixed short of "from the river to the sea" would require both sides to recognize the existance and legitimacy of the other, and leave go any desire to augment their territory further. The inadmissibilty under current international law of seizing territory from another state would operate to the protection of both.