Looking over RealClearPolitics' LV battleground numbers, bad news and very

[Guaranteed]

good news, in my analysis:

Let's do the bad news, first.

Iowa isn't looking very good, at least by the LV polls RCP has posted, even when factoring in the challenger bump, and taking out the totally ridiculous Mason-Dixon poll that has Bush up by 5 points in NM, 10 in Nevada and 3 in NH (have a look at it across the BG states- they're ALL skewed toward Bush). They don't have many polls posted, though, for Iowa, and you never know.

The really good news, is this, though:

It looks like we're going to win Ohio, and, very likely, Wisconsin, too. PA's also locked up in our favor. The reason this is good news is that even if we lose Iowa AND NM (NM looks like a real toss-up, probably the least predictable of all the states), if we take Ohio and Wisconsin (assuming we win MN, which is looking very good for Kerry), all we need is NH (or FL or NV or any of the leaning-Bush states that we've counted out) in order to win.

That, to me, is awesome news.

I think we're going to win.

Have a look for yourself, but look very closely- it's kind of unnerving at first.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html