Forget the polls - Its cold in Iowa - What is the effect?

[Wickerman]

The polls have been up and down for the last week, the candidates have pulled out all the stops - its hard to find a clear front runner.

Its possible all that will mean nothing. Why? Its darn cold in Iowa today. 1 degree in Des Moines as I type this. Further North its colder. The humidity is in the 70's and the wind is about 8 to 10 mph across the state - all that contributes the cold with a strong wind chill. I haven't seen accurate wind chill ratings for Iowa, it's -20 with windchill from my vantage point a scant 50 miles above Iowa.

Expect lower numbers of older Iowans at the caucuses tonight. By this evening it will be in the sub-zero temps again, though winds will die down. In all I would say, even with the legal holiday, turnout will be lower than if we had enjoyed the balmy lows of mid-teens and highs in the 20's and early 30's that we saw last week.

Who does this hurt? Does it help anyone? My guess is that Gephardt had a bigger number of older supporters. Maybe they will get up and going anyway.

Iowans are a hardy lot, the seasoned will barely notice the cold, but coming in an unseasonably warm winter it could have a (get ready for it, pardon in advance) a chilling effect on someone's campaign.

The question is, whose?