Updated 2006 Senate picks...

[SteppingRazor]

This has been a work in progress for me, and with Paul Hackett likely to run in Ohio, I figured I'd post my updated Senate picks for comment/criticism. I think we're real close to a senate majority -- I'm cursing Mark Warner every day for not running for Senate in Virginia, but I think there's an outside chance it can be done without him. I've split the categories into "Retiring senators," "Should be retiring senators (kind of a mean jab, I know, but it's just in there to show that this might be their last race), and straight elections. Alphabetical within those categories. Lemme know what y'all think:

RETIRING
Dayton (D - Minnesota)
Election – After beating Patty Wetterling in the primary, Amy Khobluchar takes on Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is the GOP chosen one for this field.
Result – Normally a Democratic stronghold, Minnesota feels shame and degradation after allowing Norm Coleman to win. This is a win for Dems, but it’s a close one.
(STAYS DEM)

Frist (R - Tennessee)
Election -- The catkiller steps out to go for the Big Brass Ring (a.k.a. The White House), and Jesus freak Ed Bryant goes toe-to-toe with Harold Ford, Jr., a moderate (read: conservative) Democrat.
Result -- The Fords are a household name in Tennessee. And this one will be the first black man elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Jeffords (I - Vermont)
Election -- The Dems defer to Independent candidate Bernie Sanders. The GOP throws up a candidate and cries like a little girl.
Result -- Vermont Loves Bernie. Nuff said.
(STAYS INDEPENDENT)

Sarbanes (D - Maryland)
Election -- I see it between Dem. Rep. Ben Cardin (beating out scandal-plagued Kweisi Mfume in the primary) and Lt. Gov. Steele (who probably beat Alan "batshit insane" Keyes in the primary)
Result -- Maryland is safely Dem. Say hello to Senator Cardin.
(STAYS DEM)

Corzine (D - New Jersey)
Election -- Corzine will beat Forrester in this year's election to become governor of New Jersey, leaving his chosen successor, Rep. Frank Pallone to run against state senator Tom Kean.
Result -- Tough call, but look to Pallone to pull it off.
(STAYS DEM)


SHOULD BE RETIRING
Akaka (D - Hawaii)
Election -- Akaka (age at election: 82) vs. ?
Result -- Akaka should step down, as Hawaii is slowly becoming Republican and we should get a young incumbent in while we can. But at least Akaka is a shoe-in.
(STAYS DEM)

Byrd (D - W. Va.)
Election -- Byrd (age at election: 88) vs. Rep. Shelly Moore Capito
Result – While I generally feel that anyone who is going to hit age 90 in their next term should probably retire and start on the requisite memoir, Byrd is nevertheless a sacred cow in West Virginia.
(STAYS DEM)

Feinstein (D - California)
Election -- Feinstein (age at election: 73) vs. some GOP guy you last heard of racing against Ah-nold (McClintock, Issa, etc.).
Result – Feinstein is the HUGE favorite
(STAYS DEM)

Hatch (R - Utah)
Election -- Hatch (age at election: 72) vs. Pete Ashdown
Result -- Popular Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson has refused to go against Hatch, leaving Ashdown to be crushed. Look for Matheson to try a run after Hatch retires, but for now, Hatch wins.
(STAYS GOP)

Kennedy (D - Massachusetts)
Election -- Kennedy (age at election: 74) vs. some poor sap
Result -- Mitt Romney might run when Kennedy retires, if he doesn’t take a shot at the White House. For now, Kennedy’s untouchable.
(STAYS DEM)

Kohl (D - Wisconsin)
Election -- Kohl (age at election: 71) vs. ?
Result – Early speculation postulated that Sec. Tommy Thompson might make a run, but it doesn’t look that way. Nor have other potential candidates, such as Rep. Paul Ryan, stepped forward. Looks like Kohl will coast, simply through lack of real competition
(STAYS DEM)

Lugar (R - Indiana)
Election -- Lugar (age at election: 74) vs. ?
Result – This is the “Kohl” race of the Republican side. Like Kohl, Lugar could be vulnerable — he has sided unquestioningly with some of the president’s most unpopular decisions (John Bolton, for example). But the Democrats have yet to find a good candidate. So, Lugar’s got it made.
(STAYS GOP)


ELECTIONS
Allen (R - Virginia)
Election -- Allen vs. ?
Result – The Dems could easily take this one, if only Governor Mark Warner would throw his hat in the ring. Instead, he seems to have his eye on a losing bid for the White House. It’s a shame, because he might have been the one to give the Dems a majority in the Senate.
(STAYS GOP)

Bingaman (D - New Mexico)
Election -- Bingaman vs. Rep. Heather Wilson.
Result – Though Wilson still hasn’t committed, she’s the likely candidate at this point. It’ll be a tough battle, but Bing will pull it out.
(STAYS DEM)

Burns (R - Montana)
Election -- Burns vs. (after a long primary against state auditor John Morrison) state Senate president John Tester
Result -- The Dems took over both state houses and the governorship in the last couple of years. 73-year-old Burns is a fossil. Tester is young, with plenty of ideas. He wins.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Cantwell (D - Washington)
Election -- Cantwell vs. Safeco CEO Mike McGavick
Result – Despite her close win in 2000, polls show Cantwell leading McGavick by double digits. Nuff said.
(STAYS DEM)

Carper (D - Delaware)
Election -- Carper vs. ?
Result – After Republican rep. Mike Castle announced he wouldn’t run, this seat was all but guaranteed for Carper.
(STAYS DEM)

Chafee (R - Rhode Island)
Election -- Chafee vs. (after a primary against Secretary of State Matt Brown) state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse.
Result -- With a name like Whitehouse, he’s just gotta win. Chafee has drawn Republican ire for straying from the true faith, even raising the possibility of switching parties in 2004. With the GOP abandoning him, and with Rhode Island’s heavily Democratic population, the popular Whitehouse goes in for the upset.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Clinton (D - New York)
Election -- Clinton vs. Westchester County District Attorney Jeanne Pirro
Result -- Only in their wet dreams does the GOP beat Hillary
(STAYS DEM)

Conrad (D - North Dakota)
Election -- Conrad vs. Republican governor John Hoeven
Result -- Conrad has played it safe, playing moderate as best he can. He'll get payback for that by winning re-election. Unlike Lieberman, there's very little liberal base in North Dakota to try running a lib candidate against him. And besides, even if that candidate won, it would just mean a beating from the GOP. In this case, moderation pays.
(STAYS DEM)

DeWine (R - Ohio)
Election -- DeWine vs. Paul Hackett
Result – DeWine ranks 94th out of the 100 Senators in popularity in home state. His approval is below 50%. The Ohio GOP is in disarray after the scandals of Governor Taft and the near-defeat of Rep. Schmidt by Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, plus the crushing defeat of DeWine’s son. Hackett steps up, and DeWine gets stomped.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Hutchinson (R - Texas)
Election -- Hutchison vs. Houston attorney Barbara Radnofsky
Result -- Dude, it's Texas.
(STAYS GOP)

Kyl (R - Arizona)
Election -- Kyl vs. former Arizona party chair Jim Pederson
Result – Despite its reputation as a swing state and Kyl’s conservative voting record, he remains popular. Unless the Dems can re-brand him as an archconservative of the neo-con, corporo-fascist variety, he’s in.
(STAYS GOP)

Lieberman (D - Connecticut)
Election -- Lieberman vs. ?
Result – Despite being extremely unpopular among the hardcore left, Lieberman remains popular in his home state – enough so that the GOP will have problems without a strong candidate. And with the implosion of the Connecticut GOP following the removal of Conn.’s governor, they don’t have one.
(STAYS DEM)

Lott (R - Mississippi)
Election -- Trent Lott vs. Erik Fleming
Result -- ha ha ha ha! Why are you even hoping? It's Lott by a mile.
(STAYS GOP)

Nelson (D - Florida)
Election -- Nelson vs. (after a primary against Charlie Crist or Tom Gallagher) Katherine "Cruella deVille" Harris
Result – Much of the state – not just in the left, but also among independents and moderates -- sees Harris as nothing but a thoughtless GOP apparatchik who fixed the 2000 election. Nelson wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Nelson (D - Nebraska)
Election -- Nelson vs. (after a primary against former state party chair David Kramer) former Attorney General Don Stenberg
Result – Stenberg is, at best, a third-string candidate. Governor Mike Johanns was named Agriculture Secretary, and former football coach and current congressman Tom Osbourne backed out – foolishly, as he probably could have won. Additionally, Nelson beat Stenberg pretty handily in 2000. He'll beat him again in 2006.
(STAYS DEM)

Santorum (R - Pennsylvania)
Election -- Santorum vs. state treasurer Bob Casey
Result -- In a moderate, mostly blue state like Pennsylvania, Santorum should've kept his religio-whacko views out of the headlines. Casey is a pro-life Democrat, very middle of the road. It’s exactly what the Dems needed – a sane man to highlight Santorum’s insanity.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Snowe (R - Maine)
Election -- Snowe vs. state AG Rowe.
Result -- While Snowe vs. Rowe sounds funny, it ain't for us. It's the old moderate story. If she wins the primary, she's in. As for retirement rumors, don’t count on it.
(STAYS GOP)

Stabenow (D - Michigan)
Election -- Stabenow vs. (after a nasty, drawn-out primary) token black conservative Keith Butler, whom the GOP hopes will siphon off black votes.
Result – As in Nebraska, the top-tier candidates (in this case, folks like representatives Candice Miller and Joe Rogers) have ruled-out a run against Stabenow. That means that, despite an extremely tight 2000 election, she’s in much better shape this time around.
(STAYS DEM)

Talent (R - Missouri)
Election -- Talent vs. Claire McCaskill
Results – VERY tight race, but Talent will pull it off in the end. This has the potential to be the tightest race of the year, though, so it’s really anybody’s game.
(STAYS GOP)

Thomas (R - Wyoming)
Election -- Thomas vs. ?
Election -- To paraphrase my Texas thing -- Dude, it's Wyoming.
(STAYS GOP)


Final: The Dems pick up 5 seats, making the Senate 50 GOP, 49 Dems, and 1 Independent.
Which means a sure thing for the GOP. Even if Sanders switches to the Dems (unlikely at best), Vice President Cheney breaks the tie, giving the GOP the majority.
If McCaskill would win in Missouri, or if Warner would run in Virginia, we could even pull a majority.