Ranked from most competitive to least competitive.1.
PA (
See the polls and the incumbents (Santorum)
desperate plea for debates.)
2.
OH (
DeWine's major problem lies with his base.
Hackett and Brown are both good candidates as the polls have shown. Id prefer Hackett because of his crossover appeal.)
3.
MN (Open Seat. Im not impressed with
Klobuchar. Its ashame
AG Mike Hatch wants to be governor.)
4.
NJ (
Menendez has the money, the political tilt of NJ, and incumbency on his side, but he's in no way out of the dark.
Kean is the type of republican who can compete and win in the North East. His last name doesnt hurt either.)
5.
MO (We recruited a good candidate in Claire McCaskill.
See the polls.)
6.
RI (See:
Chris Cillizza's analysis.)
7.
MD (Depending on the democratic candidate this race has the potential to move way up or possibly drop off the list.
Cardin is a solid candidate as shown in his poll numbers. He's the least known top tier candidate in the race, yet he has the best head to head numbers. Being a jewish version of Paul Sarbanes doesnt exactly hurt either.
Mfume on the other hand has character problems that would be hard to over come.)
8.
MT (
Burns is knee deep in scandal. I doubt anyone would deny that. Depending on the type of capaign his challenger runs this one could fall off the list or move up a notch or two.
Populism works in MT (See: Gov. Brian Schweitzer). I like
Tester in this race.)
9.
FL (Nelson should have lost his seat in '06. Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, Tom Gallagher, Gen. Tommy Franks. All have one thing in common, they could have knocked off Bill Nelson. But as it stands now the Republicans will be stuck with a lackluster candidate in
Katherine Harris. See:
the polls and
her inability to keep a campaign staff together. No one wants to be a part of her sinking ship. The good news for the dem's is, she's like 40 points ahead in the republican primary.)
10.
MI (Ill probably catch a little flack for this one, but I truely believe Stabenow and Gov. Granholm are more vulnerable then their poll numbers show. MI is ripe for an anti-incumbent election.
The economy is bad and the voters will be looking for someone to blame. Will the MI democrats be able to push it off on Bush? Or will it fall back on them? Even more good news for the Republicans,
Oakland County Sheriff Michael J. Bouchard is back in. That means no crazy right-wing minister problems for the GOP.)