Reply #9: I agree except for Missouri

[Awsi Dooger]

I expect Talent to win that one. Generally I go along with the statewide trend, not buck it. Virginia has been trending blue so Webb gets the benefit of a doubt there. Tennessee and Missouri have moved red so I've got to believe that holds up.

Tester is a great candidate so I think he'll hold on narrowly. Remember, even though Montana votes heavily red in presidential terms almost every statewide office is held by a Democrat.

The one that concerns me is Rhode Island. Chafee's favorability rating is fine and the logic coming out of the September primary was the race would be very tight. I always like to default to the beginning and common sense, unless a major event or blunder has changed the dynamic. That hasn't happened with Chafee.