Reply #7: Or undecided

[karynnj]

If this is true and not a statistical aberration, it might be that people are moving from HRC but not to anyone. I would take this as somewhat bad news for Obama and Edwards as well. If the people leaving HRC, had either of them as close second choices - they would leave HRC and go to them. Both have had tons of appearances and they are known in NH. What this suggests is that these people are not convinced that either of them are better alternatives.

This leads to three possible things:

1) They look at everyone else and return to HRC as the best of those possible. This is not all positive, unless they are won back through other events.

2) This may be an opportunity for one of the second tier. If this block of people all migrate to one of the second tier - he becomes competitive with Edwards. Then there is a top 4 - or one of the current top 3 fades.

3) These people lose interest and don't vote.