Don't take Obama's word for it on health care, read what the experts say

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Health Mandates: Why Paul Krugman's Wrong -- And A Talk With Obama's Health Advisor

Posted November 30, 2007

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The main difference between Obama's plan and his rivals' is this: They would mandate health coverage first and fix cost problems later. Obama would do the opposite. While both approaches are problematic, there is a strong case to be made that Obama's plan is fairer - and more politically progressive.

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…So I discussed the issue with David Cutler. Cutler is Professor of Applied Economics at Harvard, Obama's senior health advisor, and the principal architect of the Obama plan.
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"I'd like to start with a general comment," Cutler began. "Two possible reasons why people don't have health coverage are usually given. One is that the uninsured are gaming the system. The other is that they can't afford it and don't know where to get it. Most of the literature suggests that the explanation is mostly the latter. That means the single biggest thing we can do to help the uninsured is to make coverage affordable and accessible."

"That's why all the Democratic plans focus on removing excessive profits where they exist, improving information technology, and so forth," Cutler continued. "All the plans do those things, although I think the Obama plan does the most."

"The mandate argument is: You must buy something - but I'm not going to tell you what it is, how much it will cost, or where you're going to get it."

"It comes down to this," said Cutler. "You'll never get someone to buy something if it's not affordable and not accessible. People just don't do it."

That's an area where the Edwards campaign has taken the lead. They suggest automatic enrollment whenever an American intersects with the health care system or government services.

"You can enroll them," Cutler replied, "and then forcibly collect the premiums. That's one way to solve the problem. But it's not necessary to do that."

"A better approach is to do everything possible to make it affordable and available. When it is, almost everyone will have it."

There are a couple of concerns about that approach. One is the problem of "adverse selection." Sicker people - or people with a greater likelihood of becoming sick - will enroll. That will drive plan costs up, making it prohibitively expensive.

"Let's look at the level of coverage you can get without a mandate. Our estimates, based on studies in the literature, is that we can get 98% or 99% coverage without a mandate for adults. There may be some small pockets of people who choose not to buy it."

What about those people?

"If there are free riders, Obama is open to mandates. But what he is saying is 'Look, mandates seem like a panacea, but that's not where the hard work needs to be done.' Auto insurance is a mandate, too, and not everyone has that. You've got to prove to the public that you're willing to do the hard work.'"

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David Culter:

Honored for his scholarly work and singled out for outstanding mentorship of graduate students, Professor Cutler's work in health economics and public economics has earned him significant academic and public acclaim. Professor Cutler served on the Council of Economic Advisers and the National Economic Council during the Clinton Administration and advised the Presidential campaigns of Bill Bradley and John Kerry. Among other affiliations, Professor Cutler has held positions with the National Institutes of Health and the National Academy of Sciences. Currently, Professor Cutler is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member of the Institute of Medicine.

Professor Cutler is the author of Your Money Or Your Life: Strong Medicine for America's Health Care System, published by Oxford University Press. This book, and Professor Cutler's ideas, were the subject of a feature article in the New York Times Magazine, The Quality Cure, by Roger Lowenstein. Cutler was recently named one of the 30 people who could have a powerful impact on healthcare by Modern Healthcare magazine.

Barack Obama and Health Care.

85 health care experts.