Reply #1: No, this isn't a vegan vs. meat-eaters post. It's casual politics in a

[saltpoint]

serious time.

I'll go first. The least the Obama campaign can expect from Tuesday's outcome, IMO, is a mixed result, with Sen. Clinton winning big in some states and Sen. Obama winning big in others. In this scenario both campaigns can have much to cheer about and continue on to other states' contests in coming weeks.

If Senator Clinton wins in New York and New Jersey as expected, and adds California and one or both of Missouri and Minnesota, her camp will claim a big triumph and she wil be far more difficult to untrench as the likely nominee.

If Senator Obama wins in California, Missouri, Minnesota, Georgia, Delaware, Idaho, North Dakota, and possibly Alabama, he is the new frontrunner and will own every media headline for several days following.

The polling appears to be all over the place at the moment. Some are citing Sen. Clinton's national lead as increasing; others have it narrowing. In Feb. 5th states, recent polling shows tighter races but in many cases with huge Undecided percentages. There's no time on the calendar left to get a reliable track or trend on those Undecideds, especially when it's that large a number.

So what's needed is an unscientific poll. My cousin's husband a generation or two younger lives in Missouri and went to the Obama rally last night in St. Louis. It was his notion that the crowd was there not for the celebrity uplift but because they intended to show up to vote for the man on Tuesday. My source thinks that based on this, Obama will carry Missouri. That's wildly unscientific and anecdotal but there you have it.