Edwards for VP expectations are real.

[katieforeman]

In one of my earlier posts supporting Edwards for vp, I noted that many of the Kerry voters seemd to be under the impression they were voting for a Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Here are some numbers to back it up:

FL LA MS TX
Edwards first choice for VP: 44% 36% 42% 42%
Kerry voters w/Edwards VP: 44% 38% 44% 42%
Edwards 1st choice + 48% 46% 46% 47%
Edwards voters with other vp choice

These are numbers I calculated from CNN's exit polls on March 9th. The first row was raw data reported directly by CNN. I was able to use this data to calcualte the percentage of Kerry voters in the poll who listed Edwards as their "preferred running mate".

Then I noticed that not all Edwards voters listed Edwards as their "preferred running mate". It occurred to me that the question may have been somewhat ambiguous. The respondents who voted for Edwards for president may have been telling the pollster who their "preferred running mate" would be for Edwards. Other Edwards voters may have taken the question to mean: given that Kerry will be the nominee, who is your "preferred running mate" for Kerry. To me it makes sense to assume that people who took the time to go vote for Edwards after he had already withdrawn were sending a signal that they wanted Edwards for Kerry's vp. The fourth row gives the percent of respondents who either selected Edwards as "preferred running mate" or voted for Edwards but selected another "preferred running mate."

The fourth row numbers are pretty consistent. Nearly half of primary voters in these four states showed a preference for Edwards for VP. Even if you don't buy the numbers in the 4th row, the number of Kerry voters who selected Edwards as "preferred running mate" is pretty impressive. Granted these were Southern states, but two of the states had home state Senators listed as choices.

Some more numbers:

votes for Edwards % of total votes
Through Super Tues. 2,554,838 25%
Since Super Tues. 227,318 12%
Total to date. 2,782,156 23%

(calculated from CNN primary results. Maine was excluded because only 80% of the results were reported.)

Another poll:

When given a list of possible running mates and asked, who would make the best running mate for Kerry. This is how people in a national poll of registered voters responded.

All Dem Repub Ind
John Edwards 33% 34% 32% 33%

Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll taken 2-18-04 and 2-19-04
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm#misc

Does anyone doubt that if we held primaries for running-mates, Edwards would have won in a landslide? There is even a draft Kerry/Edwards website. Has there ever been a movement to draft a vp?

This clear preference and even expectation for a running-mate is unprecedented. Kerry ignores it at his peril. There will be a let down if Kerry goes with Bayh or a Midwestern governor and mayby even a slight dip in the polls. True, most of the base will still support Kerry. However, the enthusiasm may not be there. The thousands of small donors might be a little less willing to make their small donations. People might not be as willing to pay the price of admission to a Bayh fundraiser as they would to an Edwards event.

There is already speculation that Kerry won't choose Edwards because he doesn't want to be outshown by Edwards or because he still has resentment from the primaries. That would be the spin if he made an unexpected choice like Bayh.

What kind of signal would it send if Kerry's first major decision as our nominee completely ignored the preferences of the people who gave him the nomination? Announcing a DLC candidate like Bayh, would almost be a slap in the face to Dean people and others. It would re-enforce the image of Kerry as aloof and out-of touch and send some people running into the arms of Nader.

Edwards has proven his ability to get the votes of moderates and republicans in states like OH and WI. He has proven appeal as a national candidate and campaigner. His message obviously resonated with primary voters.

In the campaign, Kerry told voters to send Washington a President not a message. They will be sorely dissapointed if it turns out they sent a President who didn't get the message.