Reply #1: Here's what I think happened...

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Nader's earliest high numbers reflected a lot of people still disgruntled at the primary process and their candidates losing out to Kerry. As a reaction to that I think they probably answered about voting for Nader. Then when a lot of them saw how this was playing out in the polls it got them worried and they realized what was at stake.

I think this effect will increase as we get closer and provide Kerry with an even bigger bounce and I'm hopeful that Ralph is going to come to his senses and endorse Kerry as we get closer as well and that will be the final straw.