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Hillary surges to 40 point lead among Texas hispanics in new Belo poll, 33 point lead in IA poll [View All]

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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 11:36 PM
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Hillary surges to 40 point lead among Texas hispanics in new Belo poll, 33 point lead in IA poll
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Edited on Fri Feb-29-08 11:36 PM by Herman Munster
http://www.kvue.com/news/top/stories/022908kvuepoll-bkm.e08db71.html

Early voting ended in Texas Friday, as a new Belo Texas poll shows that Sen. Hillary Clinton has retaken the lead in the state by a narrow margin.

The poll shows Clinton now has 46 percent of the vote, just ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, who has 45 percent.

That marks a switch from their positions Thursday night, when Obama was ahead with 46 to Clinton’s 45 percent. In both cases, the race remains a statistical tie.

The poll also indicates that turnout among Hispanic voters could be the deciding factor in Tuesday’s election.

Clinton has gone from a 29 point lead among Hispanics earlier in the week, to a 40-point gap now.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_229_250.aspx

February 29, 2008 — In a very fluid Texas Democratic presidential primary, in which InsiderAdvantage’s most recent poll is the only major poll to show Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead, the core question is this: “What’s the cause for disparity between our poll and others’?

“We faced this same situation when we showed Mike Huckabee doing much better on Super Tuesday in several southern states than did other pollsters, all of whom we have great respect for,” said Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage.

“What our polling this week has picked up is a movement among Hispanic voters to Clinton. To test the validity of this trend, our latest poll surveyed only Hispanic registered voters who are likely to vote in the Texas Democratic primary, instead of polling all demographic groups (which we’ve also done.) This target polling is the only way to get a sample of a particular critical demographic and also have a statistically acceptable margin of error.”

The survey was conducted Feb. 27 and 28 among 436 likely Texas Hispanic Democratic voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%. The data have been weighted for age, gender and political affiliation. Here are the results:

Hillary Clinton: 62%
Barack Obama: 29%
Undecided: 9%

“If these numbers hold, it will be left to white Democrats in Texas to determine who wins on Tuesday. That’s why I believe the Clinton campaign took the risky move of running the ‘Three in the morning phone call’ ad. It is clearly targeted to white Democrats, who have become the swing vote in the contest.

“I still believe this race could shift back towards Obama. In a word, I think the race is basically even right now.

“Nevertheless, one thing is clear, at least in our survey: Currently Sen. Clinton is winning the Hispanic vote by a huge margin. That accounts for our poll showing the race as being closer than most other polls do,” Towery said. “Developments and trends over the weekend will almost surely decide this race.”


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