Reply #38: I'm not shocked that Obama takes a white state like Iowa/ND/or Wisco and not whites in the South

[MadBadger]

Its the south that is doing that. I mean Obama really has only had problem with the white vote in the South.

I think the pivotal thing for Obama is not the margin of victory among African Americans, but instead the GOTV effort for them. I think he will have a 70 point advantage among blacks, but key is to turn them out. Same goes for the Latinos. Thats why some say its all about the White vote because Latinos may make up a higher percentage of the vote, but Obama will take a greater percentage of the blacks than Hillary will of the latinos. I do think no matter what happens in TX, he will walk away with more delegates out of there. It just makes me wonder what's happening in Ohio, because some polls show that tightening even more. I think the biggest downside for Hillary is that there are actually two states in between March 4th, and PA. If she does very well, winning 3 out of 4 states, she wont gain all that many delegates, and Obama will have a good chance to slow any Momentum she has coming off of March 4th in Mississippi and Wyoming. The Total African American Population in MS is 38%, which means among democrats its probably even higher. And Wyoming is just one of those states Obama does well in. So I think no matter what happens, he is still in good shape.

Though i admit to having no idea what's going on in OH and TX, I'm gonna stick by my projection that Obama will end up winning TX by 7, and lose OH by four. He will therefore with a huge victory in Vermont and an 8 point loss in RI, walk away with more delegates on Tuesday.