Bad news for Obama supporters: It may not be simple math after all.

[FlyingSquirrel]

Saturday, March 8, 2008

It is possible that the Primary season could end with one candidate winning a majority of the pledged delegates and another candidate winning a majority of the popular vote. If that happens, 57% believe the nomination should go to the candidate with a majority of the popular vote. Adding to the confusion, there may be different winners of the popular vote depending upon what happens with the contested delegates in Florida and Michigan. If there are “do-over” Primaries in those states, Hillary Clinton begins with a big lead in the Sunshine State and it is tied in Michigan.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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This could really be an issue. I've heard this talked about by Hillary's supporters and pretty much dismissed it up to now. I've focused on delegates, delegates, delegates and dismissed the popular vote as irrelevant in the same way that it's irrelevant in the General Election.

But it's not irrelevant, because the superdelegates can use any rationale they see fit to use, and since pretty much everyone agrees that neither candidate will win the nomination without the help of some of the still-uncommitted supers out there, it in fact becomes VERY relevant.

If 57% of those polled believe the nomination should go to the winner of the popular vote, and that turns out to be Hillary, then it's quite possible that 57% or MORE of the undecided superdelegates may feel the same way. We're not playing by the same rules as the GE where the one who gets more electoral votes wins, period.

So basically, this is not good news for Obama supporters. The bar has been raised for him; he must win the pledged delegate race AND the popular vote race -- possibly including FL and MI -- to be certain that the superdelegates will not overturn his PD win.

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Them's the breaks folks. And don't forget that the superdelegates who have currently committed to him could change their minds if Clinton gets close enough on PD's and wins the popular vote. The DU backlash would be horrific, but the mainstream America backlash may be very minor - especially if Clinton wins and offers the VP slot to Obama.

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At this point I'd like to ask: Who has some good links to the popular vote count, and knows whose numbers are more credible?