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Only one of three things will happen now. [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
IDemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-11-08 09:24 AM
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Only one of three things will happen now.
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Realistically, that is.

There will be no deadlock in Denver, unless you believe it's entirely possible Hillary will be videotaped walking on water before the remaining primaries. Obama is favored to win the majority of those races, most by solid margins. The math, the math, the math.

Did I mention the math?

Only one of three things remain to happen:
  1. Party elders such as Dean, Gore or Edwards step forward to tap Hillary on the shoulder and tell her it's over. At the pace the current attacks and negativity are flying, the party will be in a shambles by the time August arrives and many voters may well feel disaffected by then.

  2. Again at the urging of Dean, the two are brought together and told that the so called 'Unity Ticket' is the only thing that will keep enough supporters of both together to guarantee a victory in November. Notice I say 'enough' supporters, because many (such as myself) will not be happy with the union. Despite what the overwhelming number of DU'ers say (with at least one incredibly strident exception), it is likely Dean feels the majority of Democrats will get behind such a ticket. It is my opinion that Obama would do much better in the GE with a Richards or Edwards, but I am not the one making the call.

  3. The trickle of super delegates away from Hillary and towards Obama continues, or turns into a flood, and Hillary at last sees the writing on the wall and suspends the campaign. If a Bill Richards or John Edwards endorses Obama, the floodgates will open. Despite her campaign's talk of pursuing every delegate, including the pledged, she and Bill know that nothing short of a truly catastrophic misspeak or misstep by Obama will stem the flow, much less reverse it. There will be no vast smoke filled room conspiracy by super delegates to nominate Hillary in the face of a significant Obama lead. To do that would disenfranchise and infuriate millions, and possibly damage the party for decades. It is not going to happen.

With any of these likely scenarios, we will be looking at Obama as the nominee. Simple as 1 + 1 = 2.



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