Reply #66: As I explained to you earlier, any one person's odds of being picked

[spooky3]

in a poll are very small. If all polls surveyed 1000 registered voters, and there are 150 MILLION registered voters, what are the odds of your being contacted for any given poll (hint: divide 150 million by 1000, and get 1 in 150000 chances)? And how much do your odds go up if there are 100 polls (they still aren't good, as in 1 in 1500 that you will EVER be called)? And how much do they go down if you are not at home sitting by your phone a lot (you'll have to estimate this on your own)?

Polls aren't perfect but those that attempt to get a random sample and have 1000 roughly randomly selected respondents are better at predicting than others.

Have you ever heard of "flat earth syndrome"? When one looks out the back door and says "the earth looks flat to me; therefore, the earth must be flat."