Intrade: "Barring something radical, Obama has it in the bag."

[Chichiri]

And by "something radical," they don't mean Ayers -- they mean something with a bigger effect than the economy happening in the next four weeks.


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As of Monday afternoon, Intraders give Obama the edge in states carrying 338 electoral votes. He could lose 69 of those and still win. For example Intrade has FL, VA, OH, NV as the most vulnerable blue states right now.

They could all turn red and Obama still wins.

Intrade markets are historically 100% predictive in US elections when the prices are higher than 70 or lower than 30. If we take the states currently in that range, and add in Colorado, which is at 69 for Obama, we get 44 states that, given the level of volatility and the time left, are unlikely to turn. From those states, Obama controls 273 electoral votes to 163 for McCain (Karl Rove himself pointed this out today).

As Obama needs 269 to win, barring something radical, Obama has it in the bag.

And by the way: of the other 7 states, Obama leads in electoral votes 65-37.

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(emphasis added)

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/blog/?initialBlogId=stumpy_1 -- Other great stuff here.

Incidentally, that thing about being 100% predictive when prices are higher than 70? As of this writing (11:33 PM central), Obama is at 68.9.


UPDATE 11:39pm: As of right now, Colorado is at 70.