Reply #23: Sorry, but you're way wrong

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

You just postulated that in a business cycle lay-offs cause the initial lower demand rather than that inventory-driven lower demand causing the lay-offs so you are already in flat-earth territory.

If you do not recognize that 1996-2006 was a global asset bubble running sequentially through a series of asset classes and that the housing bubble was a terminal phase of the tech bubble then that's what you think.

Do you know that from 2000-2006 GDP minus borrowing against home equity never cracked 1.5%? Mortgage equity provided more than 50% of GDP growth from 2000-2006 despite having never played a large role, let alone a majority role, in total GDP before 2000.

That's your healthy economy.