Reply #5: and it's only going to get better....

[Lexingtonian]

The amusing part is that W still has 1-2% to fall to hit his national baseline of 44-45%, which he should hit around, oh, September 30 or early October given his usual rate of fall of nearly 3% a month- Iraq just does that to him. And Kerry's numbers are rising again. Don't forget that a 45-45 split in polling is just about a winning hand for Kerry, either....

Zogby has a problem result or two in every 'battleground state' polling. Last month it was clearly Tennessee, this month it's Arkansas. (I'd add Colorado, but other polls seem to imply that the Salazar brothers are getting a couple of of percent new Democratic and Undecided voters into the Colorado electorate. That would pretty much have to be those long inactive Hispanic voters in southern Colorado that Democrats have tried to get voting for a lot of years.)

Bush only needs to lose one or two percentage points for Kerry to win Nevada, Ohio is more complicated but things are close to the same, and Kerry has about as much of a lead as can be gotten by a major party candidate in New Hampshire this year. And Florida is not going to be as close as people hope/fear this year. I'd say it's Kerry's to lose, too.

So Kerry can very be looking pretty plausible as next President by the time the first 'debate' happens.