Reply #13: This race is not even for five reasons

[Perky]

1) Late deciders (only about 5% this election) go 2-1 for the Challenger.

2) Polling does not take into account 1st time registered aboters nor their enthusiasm.

3) Pollsters do not call cell phones...Urban voters are going wireless.

4) * is honestly maxed out...Polling of the incumbern at this point tends to be hyper accurate on a state by state level.. that is the survey accurately reflects within one to two percent of what the incumbent is actually going to get. The challenger always makes it closer than the polling actually reflects.

5)THe polls at the state level are showing no momentum (honestly) for either candidate at this point. But the flat line still shows Kerry in the aggregate about a point ahead in the 18 battleground states.

All these idicators suggest a Kerry Win in the PV and the state by state tracking of Key battleground states suggest that Kerry should win PA and either OH or FL (if not both). If you win 2 out of three you win the the EV.