Reply #70: Giuliani would probably get a a lot of inertia support --

[Julien Sorel]

people who are used to voting Republican just pull the lever for him because of the "R" by his name. Would that be enough? In 1976, the current voting pattern hadn't fully set it yet; Carter slipped through a window that was closing, but it didn't fully close until Reagan in 1980. Now, loyalties have hardened. That makes it tough.

That being said,Giuliani is an odd candidate for the Republicans. They run Giuliani, we run Edwards or Warner, maybe Easley, and the South becomes a real battleground, while California would stay blue, and New York either stays blue or becomes a battleground along the lines of Pennsylvania. It would really shake things up, and I like the Democrats' chances when the Republicans can't count on a huge bloc of electoral votes right out of the gates. We have some super talent on our side that is being held back by geography, while the Republicans are so thin talent wise Bush actually looks good to them. Giuliani, with his marital issues, support for abortion and gun control, effectively throws away the cultural issues that drive southern politics, and throws the race to one of personality and voting habits. There, he would win the habit vote, but lose the personality vote. Look at a picture of Giuliani, then one of Edwards or Easley....


Well, my real dream candidate for the Republicans would be Steve Forbes, but that won't happen :/