Reply #18: The appeal could take as little as a month, after

[Igel]

the paperwork is filed by the defense.

I personally think his sentence will be commuted on 12/31/06 to score political points. 12/31/06 is the next big Muslim feast, eid al-adha. Mercy on feastdays is a long-standing ME and Muslim tradition, pardoning or sparing your enemies--it puts them and their supporters in the horrible position of incurring dishonor by showing ingratitude, or having their guts explode by showing gratitude and having the "merciful" side look good. After all, Rahman ("merciful", IIRC) is one of the names of Allah, accounting for names like Abdul Rahman ("servant of the merciful one"). Or a commutation might be worked out behind the scenes; there's also a long Muslim tradition of forgiving those that wronged you in exchange for enough money or expressing sufficient humiliation. "Justice" is malleable.

Moreover, having scored a jackpot of honor points, one can afford to be generous. One can even deign to negotiate.

Saddam will almost certainly have another death penalty coming along in a year or two, so a commutation isn't a big deal. Except symbolically. Exile ... that would be a big deal.