Ohio Preview: Polling and demographic graphs

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(Ohio, 161 delegates, March 4th)

Polls show the race in Ohio tightening:


And Clinton's lead shrinking:


Racial demographic factors

The percentage of Blacks in Ohio mirrors the national average (Ohio 12.0%, national average 12.8%). Urban Ohio may go strong for Obama in large part because of African Americans:


According to the Census Bureau the Latino population in Ohio is very small. The 2006 census indicates that Latinos comprise 2.3% of the population of Ohio, which is more than 6 times less the national average of 14.8%. Ohio's Latino Population is almost non-existent:


My past demographic analysis of Ohio:
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006: 2.3% Much less than national average (++Obama)
Black persons, percent, 2006: 12.0% Close to national average (n/a)
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2006: 13.3% Slightly more than national average (+Clinton)
Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000: 21.1% Less than nationl average (+Clinton)
(Overall advantage: Neutral)

However, the assumptions that these are based on have changed given Obama's pilfering from Clinton's base support. For example, Obama's support among working class democrats has improved in recent elections. In Wisconsin, for example, he won among voters with no college degree 56% - 43%.

Maps of interest

Ohio population map:


2004 Presidential results by county:


2006 Brown Senate win:





http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77