Reply #12: not quite

[CTLawGuy]

A "swing voter" is just as likely to not vote as a "non-voter". If a swing voter does not like either candidate, he will likely stay home, becoming a non-voter. If Kerry convinces a non-voter to vote for him, kerry gains, and bush loses a vote he could have gotten. Unless the swing voter is already in Bush's camp, he's not likely to get them. They know him, and if they liked him terribly, they'd probably support him. It's the power of incumbency; people don't want to change horses in midstream, to use a cliche. They won't look at Kerry unless they are dissatisfied. If they end up not liking kerry either, they'll probably just stay home.

In short, Kerry needs to motivate people to vote for him. Someone from the Electoral Graveyard is just as good as a swing voter. It's one vote. Also remember Bush has the exact same access to the non-voters as Kerry does.