Kerry Exit Poll Deviations across Time Zones
Is there a relationship between the percentage deviations and
the time zones? Perhaps.
Look at the Eastern time zone, where Kerry had his highest
exit poll margins. The average vote tally deviation was -2.7%.
This is much higher than corresponding percentages as we go
West.
The Pacific time zone which includes OR (all paper ballot) had
the smallest decline: -0.4%
ZONE Num Over3%Exit Vote Diff
East 21 11 53.1 50.5 -2.7
Cent 16 4 43.4 42.4 -1.0
Mount 8 0 41.4 39.7 -1.7
Pacif 5 1 50.8 50.3 -0.4
Total 50 16 47.2 45.7 -1.5
Note: The averages are unweighted, meaning they do not take
into account the voting population. When they are weighted,
Kerry got about 50.5% based on exit polls vs. Bush.
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The breakdown summary:
Eastern: 20 of 21 states deviated to Bush (11 exceeded 3%)
Kerry's Average 53.1% Exit Poll declined to 50.5% in the vote
tally.
Central: 11 of 16 states deviated to Bush (4 exceeded 3%)
Kerry's Average 43.4% Exit Poll declined to 42.4% in the vote
tally.
Mountain: 7 of 8 states deviated to Bush (NONE exceeded 3%)
Kerry's Average 41.4% Exit Poll declined to 39.7% in the vote
tally.
Pacific: 2 of 5 states deviated to Bush (1 exceeded 3%)
Kerry's Average 50.8% Exit Poll declined to 50.3% in the vote
tally.
A total of 40 out of 50 states deviated to Bush (16 exceeded
3%)
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Zone State Exit Vote Diff
1 e DE 58.5 53.5 -5.0
2 e NH 55.4 50.5 -4.9
3 e VT 65.0 60.2 -4.8
4 e SC 46.0 41.4 -4.6
5 e NC 48.0 44.0 -4.0
6 e NY 63.0 59.2 -3.8
7 e CT 58.5 55.1 -3.4
8 e RI 64.0 60.6 -3.4
9 e MA 66.0 62.6 -3.4
10 e PA 54.4 51.0 -3.4
11 e OH 52.1 49.0 -3.1
12 e FL 50.5 47.5 -3.0
13 e WV 45.3 43.4 -1.8
14 e IN 41.0 39.4 -1.6
15 e GA 43.0 41.4 -1.6
16 e NJ 55.0 53.5 -1.5
17 e KY 41.0 40.0 -1.0
18 e MI 52.5 51.5 -1.0
19 e ME 54.8 54.1 -0.7
20 e MD 57.0 56.6 -0.4
21 e VA 45.2 45.5 0.3
1 c NE 36.8 32.3 -4.4
2 c AL 41.0 37.0 -4.0
3 c MS 43.3 40.0 -3.3
4 c MN 54.5 51.5 -3.0
5 c LA 44.5 42.4 -2.1
6 c IL 57.0 55.0 -2.0
7 c WI 52.5 50.5 -2.0
8 c MO 47.5 46.0 -1.5
9 c IA 50.7 49.5 -1.2
10 c AR 46.6 45.5 -1.1
11 c OK 35.0 34.0 -1.0
12 c TX 37.0 38.4 1.4
13 c TN 41.5 43.0 1.5
14 c SD 37.8 39.4 1.6
15 c ND 34.0 36.4 2.4
16 c KS 35.0 37.4 2.4
1 m UT 30.5 27.6 -2.9
2 m ID 33.5 30.6 -2.9
3 m AZ 47.0 44.4 -2.6
4 m NM 51.3 49.5 -1.8
5 m CO 49.1 47.5 -1.6
6 m WY 30.9 29.6 -1.3
7 m NV 49.4 48.5 -0.9
8 m MT 39.8 39.8 0.0
1 p AK 40.5 36.1 -4.4
2 p WA 55.0 53.5 -1.4
3 p OR 51.2 52.0 0.8
4 p HI 53.3 54.5 1.2
5 p CA 54.0 55.6 1.6