Reply #7: yes I did -

[gulogulo]

did you see the link I provided?

As I have shown, the "raw" exit polls are NOT reliable. The national raw exit polls have been off as much as 8% in previous presidential election (1988). The paper that you provided does not address this at all.

If you want to look at foreign exit polls and their reliability, take a look at:

http://www.aceproject.org/main/english/lf/lfd08e.htm

"...their reliability can be questionable. One might think that there is no reason why voters in stable democracies should conceal or lie about how they have voted, especially because nobody is under any obligation to answer in an exit poll. But in practice they often do. The majority of exit polls carried out in European countries over the past years have been failures."

(ACE Project is a joint venture of the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA))

And if you want to see research someone has done on the inaccuracy of exit polling in general because of various factors, including such things as time of day and age of the pollsters, see

http://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2004/Docherty%20and%20others.pdf