Edited on Thu Dec-23-04 01:19 AM by L. Coyote
Certainly, less than his state-wide percentage. The state-wide percentage incorporates cross-voting, and Cuyahoga is different than the rest of Ohio, esp. given 66% Kerry support. Perhaps one-ballot precincts areour best clue.
This Cuyahoga statistical summary might help resolve the problem.
County percent: Cast Kerry Bush Badn. Per. Non-vote
count 1435 1435 1435 1435 1435 1435
mean 60.0 66.6 31.0 0.320 0.274 1.804
median 62.2 64.4 33.3 0.182 0.000 1.464
skew -1.082 0.113 -0.117 22.43 18.79 3.231
.05 normdist 0.000 0.000 0.044 0.437 0.436 0.109
.1 trmean 60.6 66.7 30.9 0.189 0.143 1.671
.5 trmean 61.7 65.5 32.2 0.136 0.084 1.527
avedev 7.36 14.91 15.56 0.345 0.327 0.979
stdevp 9.33 17.45 18.19 1.70 1.38 1.42
stdev 9.34 17.46 18.19 1.70 1.38 1.42
.05 pconfid. 0.48 0.90 0.94 0.088 0.072 0.074
min 7.85 27.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
max 70.0 65.7 71.5 0.59 0.33 1.78
range 62.1 38.5 71.5 0.591 0.328 1.777
confidence 0.483 0.903 0.941 0.088 0.072 0.074
quart 1 50.72 61.33 4.66 0.000 0.000 1.163
quart 2 57.85 75.16 21.13 0.178 0.000 1.920
quart 3 66.73 81.16 45.55 0.354 0.261 2.366
One Ballot subset
count 177 177 177 177 177 177
mean 56.6 74.3 23.1 0.212 0.211 2.216
median 57.9 75.2 21.1 0.178 0.000 1.920
skew -0.562 -0.487 0.487 1.291 11.210 1.583
.05 normdist 0.000 0.000 0.103 0.256 0.410 0.082
.1 trmean 57.0 75.1 22.2 0.187 0.135 2.102
.5 trmean 57.8 76.4 20.8 0.143 0.078 1.989
avedev 7.80 15.10 15.74 0.194 0.243 1.184
stdevp 9.77 17.51 18.17 0.247 0.710 1.556
stdev 9.80 17.56 18.22 0.248 0.712 1.561
.05 pconfid. 1.44 2.58 2.68 0.036 0.105 0.229
min 28.83 27.21 0.96 0.000 0.000 0.000
max 86.77 96.23 71.48 1.068 9.091 11.00
range 57.94 69.02 70.51 1.068 9.091 11.00
confidence 1.440 2.579 2.676 0.036 0.105 0.229
quart 1 50.72 61.33 4.661 0.0000 0.0000 1.163
quart 2 57.85 75.16 21.13 0.178 0.0000 1.920
quart 3 63.80 91.90 37.10 0.347 0.253 3.030
And now a summary of actual numbers.
One Ballot Kerry b Bush non p
mean 312.2 0.93 102.3 9.226 0.746
median 298.0 1.00 76.0 8.000 0.000
skew 0.212 1.241 1.598 1.394 1.918
.05 normdist 0.003 0.202 0.147 0.086 0.264
.1 trmean 311.5 0.839 94.2 8.708 0.621
.5 trmean 304.1 0.640 81.6 8.157 0.371
avedev 92.4 0.811 78.8 5.089 0.843
stdevp 114.7 1.055 97.6 6.706 1.104
stdev 115.0 1.058 97.9 6.725 1.107
.05 pconfid. 16.90 0.155 14.4 0.988 0.163
min 21 0 4 0 0
max 620 5.000 662 41.000 6.000
range 599 5.000 658 41.000 6.000
confidence 16.9 0.155 14.4 0.988 0.163
quart 1 232 0.000 18.0 5.000 0.000
quart 2 298 1.000 76.0 8.000 0.000
quart 3 401 2.000 169 13.000 1.000
Countywide
mean 275.6 1.174 134.2 7.457 1.116
median 264.0 1.000 130.0 6.000 0.000
skew 0.313 26.370 0.743 3.335 25.037
.05 normdist 0.004 0.410 0.081 0.107 0.437
.1 trmean 274.3 0.807 128.6 6.921 0.609
.5 trmean 267.1 0.579 127.4 6.300 0.395
avedev 81.18 1.184 78.07 4.154 1.296
stdevp 103.19 4.950 96.06 5.964 6.752
stdev 103.23 4.952 96.09 5.966 6.754
.05 pconfid. 5.34 0.256 4.970 0.309 0.349
min 1 0 0 0 0
max 395543 1684 192518 10701 1602
range 395542 1684 192518 10701 1602
confidence 5.339 0.256 4.970 0.309 0.349
quart 1 232.00 0.000 18.000 5.000 0.000
quart 2 298.00 1.000 76.000 8.000 0.000
quart 3 342.00 1.000 198.500 10.000 1.000