Reply #15: The Headline Grabbing Probabilities Never Have Assumptions Trailers

[L. Coyote]

The assumption is that the polling was perfect. Any deviation from that assumption and all you are left with is a false headline grabbing probability. A probability with about zero relevance in either case.

Let's remember some basics here. Ergo -- Exit polls are not random samples, samples are clustered, precincts are pre-selected, thus increasing the margin of error. Accuracy is only ensured if samples represent population AND weighting accurately predicts the overall voting. It is predictive. It is not random polling. Inferential statistics at best.

Samples of samples are under consideration with incomplete polling, partial samples of the pre-selected precincts.

Do you have the specifics of the model and methodology employed by the poll? Can you say if they just took the money and ran to the bank, or if they really did what they were paid to do? etc. etc. What can you say for sure except that these numbers appeared somewhere?

Okay, you've shown that EITHER the exit polling was flawed or there was fraud. You haven't shown us which is the case yet. Nor has anyone else. Those who know are keeping quite quiet.

That given, look at the pattern in the flawed polling for the deviations from expected results.

A valid assumption is that the same methods were applied across the nation. So the differeces between states are more useful than the overall trend.

Here are the state Z-scores for the differences (standard deviations from the population mean). Now you can see the probabilies for particular states and apply a hypothesis with x degree of confidence. This will paste right into Excel.

St	Size	Exit	Vote	Diff	Z-score
DE	770	58.50	53.54	-4.96	4.042
NH	1849	55.40	50.51	-4.89	3.972
VT	685	65.00	60.20	-4.80	3.882
SC	1735	46.00	41.41	-4.59	3.672
NE	785	36.76	32.32	-4.44	3.522
AK	910	40.50	36.08	-4.42	3.502
AL	730	41.00	37.00	-4.00	3.082
NC	2167	48.00	44.00	-4.00	3.082
NY	1452	63.00	59.18	-3.82	2.902
CT	872	58.50	55.10	-3.40	2.482
RI	809	64.00	60.61	-3.39	2.472
MA	889	66.00	62.63	-3.37	2.452
PA	1930	54.35	51.00	-3.35	2.432
MS	798	43.26	40.00	-3.26	2.342
OH	1963	52.10	49.00	-3.10	2.182
FL	2846	50.51	47.47	-3.04	2.122
MN	2178	54.50	51.52	-2.98	2.062
UT	798	30.50	27.55	-2.95	2.032
ID	559	33.50	30.61	-2.89	1.972
AZ	1859	47.00	44.44	-2.56	1.642
VA	1000	47.96	45.45	-2.51	1.592
KS	654	35.00	37.37	2.37	1.452
ND	649	34.00	36.36	2.36	1.442
LA	1669	44.50	42.42	-2.08	1.162
IL	1392	57.00	55.00	-2.00	1.082
WI	2223	52.50	50.51	-1.99	1.072
WV	1722	45.25	43.43	-1.82	0.902
NM	1951	51.30	49.49	-1.81	0.892
MT	640	39.76	39.80	0.04	0.878
DC	795	91.00	90.91	-0.09	0.828
CO	2515	49.10	47.47	-1.63	0.712
SD	1495	37.76	39.39	1.63	0.712
IN	926	41.00	39.39	-1.61	0.692
GA	1536	43.00	41.41	-1.59	0.672
CA	1919	54.00	55.56	1.56	0.642
MO	2158	47.50	46.00	-1.50	0.582
TN	1774	41.50	43.00	1.50	0.582
NJ	1520	55.00	53.54	-1.46	0.542
WA	2123	54.95	53.54	-1.41	0.492
MD	1000	57.00	56.57	-0.43	0.488
TX	1671	37.00	38.38	1.38	0.462
HI	499	53.30	54.55	1.25	0.332
ME	1968	54.75	54.08	-0.67	0.248
IA	2502	50.65	49.49	-1.16	0.242
AR	1402	46.60	45.45	-1.15	0.232
OR	1064	51.20	52.00	0.80	0.118
KY	1034	41.00	40.00	-1.00	0.082
OK	1539	35.00	34.00	-1.00	0.082
MI	2452	52.50	51.52	-0.98	0.062
NV	2116	49.35	48.48	-0.87	0.048
					
Mean	1450	49	47	-1.802	1.504
Median	1507.5	49.225	47.47	-1.815	1.077
stdevp	623.656	10.475	10.256	1.963	1.195
skew	0.212	1.126	1.322	0.415	
var		111.96	107.32