Reply #84: Those are MOE's calculated by yours truly based on sample size.

[TruthIsAll]

The formula is 1/sqrt(N) where N is the sample size. It is a well-known formula.

I have used the MOE as the criteria in prior analysis.
Bush exceeds the MOE in 16 states.
The probability of that was calculated as 1 in 13.5 trillion.

This analysis was a follow-up of the original to show that since exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls (the MOE's are given for pre-election polls) than if we assume an exit poll MOE of 2% (this is still very conservative), then Bush exceeds the 2% exit poll MOE in 23 states.

The probability of this occurrence is less than 30 zeros to the right of the decimal point, which Excel cannot display.

If you want to assume the pre-0election MOE as shown, rather than the 2%, be my guest. It's right there - 16 states.