Reply #37: You know what might be helpful...

[skids]

If any such poll actually has or will happen, and the methods were kept the same as pre-election polls that queried people who had voted early or by absentee, then comparing the results among early voters to prior polls would tell us loads. So if it gets done, people should be asked what day they voted on.

Which, by the way, is something I'm surprised that TIA hasn't latched onto: there were three surveys done before the election which included, in effect, an exit poll of absentee voters.

Estimates of early voter turnout seem to point to around 24% (Source AP Nancy Benac, AP Robert Tanner, Harris Poll, CBS/NYT poll) Of course the ratio varied drastically from state to state, and if claims of the other side are to be believed, in certain states Dems had a better showing in absentee than at the polls... but one would be naive not to wonder whether some of that may have been due to bad election day counting.

Keep in mind that, though the trend has started to reverse and though a reverse behavior can be seen in heavily Democratic localities, conservative seniors still do tend to dominate the early/absentee vote overall:

Absentee/early voters:

Oct 28-30 CBS/NYT: They are a bit older: one-quarter are 65 or over, and eight in ten are above age 45.

Oct 28-30 CBS/NYT: Twenty percent say they have already voted by mail or early voting, and 3 percent more plan to vote by absentee or early voting before Tuesday. Of those who have already voted, 51 percent say they voted for Mr. Bush (ed. 43% for Kerry.)

Oct 20th, Zogby: among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%.

Harris, poll Oct 29-31: we estimate that approximately 24 percent of all this year's votes have already been cast. These voters have given an early 50 to 44 percent lead to President Bush over Senator Kerry.

...that's just what I had on file. There may be others.