Reply #111: Sounds as though you DO understand the mechanism I'm suggesting

[AirAmFan]

for miscounting votes, but not my proposed simple test.

Define a binary variable (call it KERRYLAST) that is 1 for ballot order 'DPBWK' and 0 for all other ballot orders. The question I want to ask the data is whether, in precincts where the vast majority intended to vote for Kerry, there is a significant difference in the percentage vote for 'DISQUALIFIED' by KERRYLAST.

Yes, votes intended for ANY candidate could wind up being mispunched for DISQUALIFIED. But where the vast majority intended to vote for Kerry, there would be a path to DISQUALIFIED where KERRYLAST=0 that does not exist where KERRYLAST=1.

There's an implicit assumption in my theory that, while ANY candidate listed below Kerry could get some of his votes if the ballot was not all the way down, the candidate IMMEDIATELY below him is much more likely to get his vote than the candidate two, three, or four positions down. We might be able to test for some of those farther-away misvotes too, but I'm assuming the adjacent ballot position below would get mmost of the action.

In strongly pro-Bush areas, the same 'not-all-the-way-down' mechanism could lead to miscasting votes for Kerry instead of Bush. But at least there would be an unexpectedly higher Kerry vote left behind by such mishaps. The disturbing thing about not-all-the-way-down in Kerry areas is that DISQUALIFIED was not even tallied. It is in a black hole, commingled with dimpled, pregnant, and hanging chads, smooth intact punchcards, and all other nonvotes.

We don't have precinct tallies of DISQUALIFIED yet, though Joes letter from Michael Vu leaves hope we may get such data eventually. In the meantime, total nonvotes can serve as a substitute.

The basic idea is that many fewer vot