Reply #182: How many votes would Badnarik have gotten in Cuyahoga?

[L. Coyote]

Certainly, less than his state-wide percentage. The state-wide percentage incorporates cross-voting, and Cuyahoga is different than the rest of Ohio, esp. given 66% Kerry support. Perhaps one-ballot precincts areour best clue.

This Cuyahoga statistical summary might help resolve the problem.

					
County percent: Cast   Kerry	Bush	Badn.   Per.   Non-vote

count		1435	1435	1435	1435	1435	1435
mean		60.0	66.6	31.0	0.320	0.274	1.804
median		62.2	64.4	33.3	0.182	0.000	1.464
skew		-1.082	0.113	-0.117	22.43	18.79	3.231
.05 normdist	0.000	0.000	0.044	0.437	0.436	0.109
.1 trmean	60.6	66.7	30.9	0.189	0.143	1.671
.5 trmean	61.7	65.5	32.2	0.136	0.084	1.527
avedev		7.36	14.91	15.56	0.345	0.327	0.979
stdevp		9.33	17.45	18.19	1.70	1.38	1.42
stdev		9.34	17.46	18.19	1.70	1.38	1.42
.05 pconfid.	0.48	0.90	0.94	0.088	0.072	0.074
min		7.85	27.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
max		70.0	65.7	71.5	0.59	0.33	1.78
range		62.1	38.5	71.5	0.591	0.328	1.777
confidence	0.483	0.903	0.941	0.088	0.072	0.074
quart 1		50.72	61.33	4.66	0.000	0.000	1.163
quart 2		57.85	75.16	21.13	0.178	0.000	1.920
quart 3		66.73	81.16	45.55	0.354	0.261	2.366

One Ballot subset

count		177	177	177	177	177	177
mean		56.6	74.3	23.1	0.212	0.211	2.216
median		57.9	75.2	21.1	0.178	0.000	1.920
skew		-0.562	-0.487	0.487	1.291	11.210	1.583
.05 normdist	0.000	0.000	0.103	0.256	0.410	0.082
.1 trmean	57.0	75.1	22.2	0.187	0.135	2.102
.5 trmean	57.8	76.4	20.8	0.143	0.078	1.989
avedev		7.80	15.10	15.74	0.194	0.243	1.184
stdevp		9.77	17.51	18.17	0.247	0.710	1.556
stdev		9.80	17.56	18.22	0.248	0.712	1.561
.05 pconfid.	1.44	2.58	2.68	0.036	0.105	0.229
min		28.83	27.21	0.96	0.000	0.000	0.000
max		86.77	96.23	71.48	1.068	9.091	11.00
range		57.94	69.02	70.51	1.068	9.091	11.00
confidence	1.440	2.579	2.676	0.036	0.105	0.229
quart 1		50.72	61.33	4.661	0.0000	0.0000	1.163
quart 2		57.85	75.16	21.13	0.178	0.0000	1.920
quart 3		63.80	91.90	37.10	0.347	0.253	3.030

And now a summary of actual numbers.

One Ballot	Kerry	b	Bush	non	p				
mean		312.2	0.93	102.3	9.226	0.746
median		298.0	1.00	76.0	8.000	0.000
skew		0.212	1.241	1.598	1.394	1.918
.05 normdist	0.003	0.202	0.147	0.086	0.264
.1 trmean	311.5	0.839	94.2	8.708	0.621
.5 trmean	304.1	0.640	81.6	8.157	0.371
avedev		92.4	0.811	78.8	5.089	0.843
stdevp		114.7	1.055	97.6	6.706	1.104
stdev		115.0	1.058	97.9	6.725	1.107
.05 pconfid.	16.90	0.155	14.4	0.988	0.163
min		21	0	4	0	0
max		620	5.000	662	41.000	6.000
range		599	5.000	658	41.000	6.000
confidence	16.9	0.155	14.4	0.988	0.163
quart 1		232	0.000	18.0	5.000	0.000
quart 2		298	1.000	76.0	8.000	0.000
quart 3		401	2.000	169	13.000	1.000

Countywide	
				
mean		275.6	1.174	134.2	7.457	1.116
median		264.0	1.000	130.0	6.000	0.000
skew		0.313	26.370	0.743	3.335	25.037
.05 normdist	0.004	0.410	0.081	0.107	0.437
.1 trmean	274.3	0.807	128.6	6.921	0.609
.5 trmean	267.1	0.579	127.4	6.300	0.395
avedev		81.18	1.184	78.07	4.154	1.296
stdevp		103.19	4.950	96.06	5.964	6.752
stdev		103.23	4.952	96.09	5.966	6.754
.05 pconfid.	5.34	0.256	4.970	0.309	0.349
min		1	0	0	0	0
max		395543	1684	192518	10701	1602
range		395542	1684	192518	10701	1602
confidence	5.339	0.256	4.970	0.309	0.349
quart 1		232.00	0.000	18.000	5.000	0.000
quart 2		298.00	1.000	76.000	8.000	0.000
quart 3		342.00	1.000	198.500	10.000	1.000