Reply #22: College overtimes are a farce; ZERO chance the NFL will ever adopt similar

[Awsi Dooger]

Literally zero chance. You've never paid attention to the argument if you think they'll ever go that route. The overtime format comes up frequently at NFL winter meetings and the college system is properly ridiculed. The games have a tendency to go on for several possessions, to the point the teams are worn out the following week. That's even more of a concern in the physical NFL. One college football betting trend is to go against any team that played an overtime that went at least two possessions and particularly three or higher. It was so successful the oddsmakers now adjust the line severely before those games are even on the board.

The owners and general managers understand variables that fans and media are happy to ignore. For one thing, if both teams are guaranteed a possession in overtime it impacts strategy late in regulation. A team with a dominant QB can be smug in its chances if both teams will get an opportunity. But if it's true sudden death they can't afford that gamble, and therefore play it more aggressively in regulation. The last thing the league wants is games that extend well beyond the 3 hour TV window, and with potential for coasting late in regulation, a team willing to take its chances in overtime.

College overtimes are hardly balanced. The team that wins the flip always chooses to go on defense first. There have been only 4 exceptions in 15 seasons, among something like 350 games. And the team that wins the flip and chooses to go on defense wins the game 54% of the time. That's the type of thing you need to know as a sports bettor. The books often stick quick lines on the overtimes and they wait until the toss. Then the team winning the toss becomes the favorite, unless they were a major underdog to begin with. It's sheer ignorance to think college overtimes are a 50/50 proposition.

Bottom line, the NFL's problem is the kickoff location, as I posted last night. Prior to the kickoff being moved from the 35 to the 30, the receiving team won the game 51% of the time. After the change to the 30, it's almost 59%. The idea to move it up to the 35 in overtime has come up at the rules meetings, but been voted down.

I think you'll see more and more kickoff specialists, guys who can jam the ball into the end zone. Carolina has used a roster spot for a few seasons on Rhys Lloyd, and Dallas had great success this year with David Buehler. They are the only two in the league.