Chris Bowers on the Pew Poll bias (turnout model)

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http://mydd.com/

There is no doubt that the protective bubble of massive, double-digit generic ballot polls has been broken. However, I would like to point something else out: in at least the latest Pew poll, the nation is postulated as vastly more conservative than in 2004, and Democrats have pulled ahead anyway.

The Pew poll turnout model suggests parity among self-identifying Democrats and Republicans, just like 2004. It also suggests that the electorate in 2006 will be overwhelmingly conservative compared to 2004. In 2004, according to exit polls, 21% of the electorate self-identified as liberal, and 34% self-identified as conservative. If those same turnout models holds in 2006, then Pew's own voting sample would produce the following result:

Democrats 55%--35% Republicans

Gee, that isn't very close anymore, is it? The problem is that Pew's current turnout model suggests a 10% advancement for Republicans on 2004, with 39% of the electorate as conservative (+5%), and 16% of the electorate as liberal (-5%). There also is no evidence whatsoever to indicate that Democrats and Republicans have remained at parity since 2004. All evidence indicates just the opposite. But anyway, let's assume that the Pew turnout model is correct, and that the nation has grown far, far more conservative in 2006 than it was in 2004. Even then, Democrats have still pulled ahead. Thus, in order to even come close in 2006, Republicans will need to have successfully made the electorate far, far more conservative in 2006 than it was in 2004. In order to win, they will need to go way beyond that.

Here is the deal. There are polls, such as Time and Newsweek, contradicting Pew, Gallup, and ABC. Those polls do not suggest that the nation has grown vastly more conservative than it was in 2004. However, even if all polls suggested that the electorate was far, far more conservative than it was in 2004, Democrats have still pulled ahead anyway. So, the country would have experienced a massive demographic shift that should have been favorable to Republicans, and Democrats have pulled ahead anyway. In a vastly more conservative nation, Democrats pull ahead anyway.