Reply #3: If republicans are more likely to vote, it's not diddling with the numbers

[Gormy Cuss]

It's a necessary tweak. The press reporting that tweaking as an upswing for Republicans is what's wrong in that case.

It is true that with tight races a certain number of disillusioned voters-- those who earlier claimed they would vote for the candidate from the opposing party -- end up voting along party lines. The historic effect of negative ads, I don't know how well documented their effect is late in the campaign.

So, the pollsters may simply be taking the right steps to adjust the estimations.

Or you could be right --- it's about selling more stuff on TV.