Reply #8: Some context

[phiddle]

Wilson won re-election 2 years ago thanks to an enormous advantage in absentee balloting. One of the chiefs in the Madrid campaign told me tonight that Howard Dean had decided to make this district a laboratory for an early/absentee drive, and it appears now to have paid off. Result--there's been a huge amount of early and absentee voting.
Republicans have a slight lead in the # of absentee ballots requested, while (reportedly) the total of early Republican + Independent early voters is slightly less than the total number of Dem early voters. Polls have shown Madrid with a consistent lead: 9 points by Zogby 2 weeks ago, tightening to 4 points in a poll relased today by the Albuquerque Journal. But, it appears that Wilson cannot be saved by the absentee/early vote--she'll have to win it Tuesday, behind in the polls. Hence, get down and dirty.