Reply #4: Alex, I'll take Prolonged Quagmire for $3 trillion!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

Iran has the seventh largest army in the world. They have connections with Hamas and Hezbollah, which could raise all sorts of hell in all sorts of places. They have missiles capable of hitting American installations in Iraq. They may not have nukes, but they have chemical and biological stuff, like Iraq didn't. In other words, they are much more capable of fucking with us if we fuck with them. The likely blowback from any attack by us would be highly unpleasant.

Attacking Iraq would be even more colossaly stupid than attacking Iraq was -- and that was pretty damn stupid.