Reply #25: Disagree

[WilliamPitt]

A lot of the GOP base will stay home if they nominate Rudy, 12-15% at a guess, and Republicans don't win without their whole base turning out.

Senator Clinton has a solid chance of winning most, if not all, of the Gore states. Her campaign has infrastructure in swing states like AK and MO going back to her husband's victories in '92 and '96, which may prove crucial if Gore2000 states like PA and WI get wobbly. She could very well be honored with unprecedented Black voter turnout nationally if the name "Clinton" is as popular as it used to be among that part of the Dem base...

...and New Hampshire has gone Blue, having voted Dem in '04 for the first time since Truman and having bounced long-time GOP Rep. Charlie Bass for Paul Hodes in '06...

...and if Gore had won NH in 2000, Florida would have been a footnote. Clinton will probably win NH in '08, because there are 26,000 Democrats in Cheshire County who will vote for her, and that'll be enough.

Math: Gore states + NH = win. Nothing is certain of course, but the numbers are favorable, buttressed again by Dem turnout for all those Senate races. Add the MO and AK wrinkles, plus W-VA maybe going Dem again after absorbing Bush's mortal screwing of the coalminers...

Nothing is certain except this: you're wrong, we've lost nothing yet.