Reply #39: No, I agree it is not impossible

[Basileus Basileon]

that any one of the Amazing Conversion stories on the internet are true. However, common sense would dictate that most probably are false. People do not undergo complete belief inversions frequently, and such anecdotes are ubiquitous. Moreover, people have several motives to falsify such stories on the Internet.

1. They might be looking for applause. The most slapdash Amazing Conversion story will get a few dozen slaps on the back, easily.

2. They might be looking to convince others that their beliefs are attractive. This is also a reason to believe them; who doesn't want to think Their Guy is popular?

3. They might be fantasizing about what might have been, given a mundane interaction--the political/theological version of the Penthouse letter that has as its origin nothing more than a girl smiling at you in the library.

4.They might be taking a conversation with someone who expressed disgust at an aspect of something they oppose, and simply "filled in the blanks" as they saw fit afterwards. I remember a conversation I had with a friend of mine (a Navy guy) who said he couldn't stand Bush, or a thing he stood for, and that he had all but ruined the country, and that he wanted a new direction. I remember a week later, asking him if he was looking at Hillary or Obama or someone else. He laughed at me, and said he was all for Fred Thompson. As it turns out, he was upset that Bush was incompetent (and that spending had increased); he wanted a "real conservative." Of course, I assumed otherwise from our first, brief conversation.

There may be a few hardcore political partisans who decided to support a candidate they previously laughed off as a nutjob. I would wager that the odds that so many just happen to be friends of people who post on political forums are fairly low. When you contrast even that with the utter lack of posts claiming experience with people leaving the writer's flock, I would lower the bar further still (it is notable that the only exception--the "DEM/PUB I KNOW WILL NOT SUPPORT CLINTON/GIULIANI" posts I have seen--are from people attempting to convince others that nominating a particular primary candidate would be a bad idea).