Who do you think Al Qaeda wants to win the election ?

[NJmaverick]

I think it's a good idea to consider OBL's basic history. He was a soldier in the insurgent forces that drove the USSR out of Afghanistan. When that succeeded he had little to do, and he was marginalized. Then came gulf war 1. He wanted to be the army that fought Saddam and protect the Saudis. That didn't happen and he was pissed and again marginalized. His message that the US wanted to colonize the Muslim Mideast didn't exactly resonate with the people's in the region.

Now before we go farther, we need to know how terrorists opporate. First off, to be successful they need the general good will and tacit support of the people, in the regions they operate. With out that, they would be unable to hide their operations, have the go off successfully and not be able to recruit new people. Terror groups employing suicide bombings have an especially daunting task recruiting new people (although not impossible as we have seen suicide cults right here in the US).

Anyway back to how terrorist operate. Terrorist tactics are usually employed when you don't have a military force is strong enough to even engage in guerilla operations (or the terrian and situation doesn't make that possible). So it's the very weak against the very strong. So the idea of terrorism is to attack the enemy in a manner that causes the maxium ammount or terror and disruption. The attacks don't have to cause massive deaths, just disrupt and scare the enemy (usually it's civilian population). The idea that in time the enemy will grow weary of the attacks, or will bankrupt or cripple their economy (due to the attacks and fighting the attack) and seek to give the terrorist the concessions that want.

So back to OBL, in order to gain the recognition and clout he desired, he launched the most devestating terror attack in the history of mankind. Now one has to wonder why? Well he hoped that the US would over react and rush into armed conflicts in the middle east. That is exactly what OBL wanted. It would prove to the Muslim people he was right, and it would give him a great recruiting tool and training area. Remember OBL is at home in guerilla warfar situation.

He pretty much counted on an invasion of Afghanistan (he knew he would be able to flee to the mountains as he did with the Soviets). He figured that would draw the US into a long and costly no win war in that region (after all history has shown this isn't a Country one wants to invade and occupy, just ask the USSR and Great Britian).

He got his war, but it did not go as well as he was hoping. He greatly overestimated his own strengths and abilites, while not realizing the US was technologically superior to the USSR.

This is where the huge mistake happened. Just as he was on the ropes and praying to Allah for a miracle, he got just that. The US took it's eye off the prize and invaded Iraq. This was the miracle OBL was praying for. Suddenly needed resources were removed from Afghanistan and sent to Iraq. Suddenly there was another US invasion. Only unlike Afghanistan that was generally supported (or at least accepted) and wasn't creating bad press and feeling against the United States, you had the complete opposite with the invasion of Iraq. Better yet, Saddam was a natural enemy of OBL so he couldn't have asked for a better Country for the US to invade.

So now OBL is sitting safe in his case of Afghanistand and Pakistan. He has the US bleeding money at 12 billion on month for Iraq and a couple of billion for afghanistan. Oil prices are going through the roof. Which is helping his people while hurting the western world. He has become a important and legendary figure in the third world. He has every thing he could possible want.


So considering this situation who would he want in the White House. A tempermental president, who's temperment would make him easy to manipulate? One who would continue the policies that have brought him great succes? Or would he want to change the situation? Would he want a president who's father was Muslim and who's election would seriously undermine his message? Would he want Hillary, who would also try and pull the US out fo the region? Would he want a president that would pull the US out of Iraq, there by stopping the finacial bleeding. Further pulling out of the region would help to reduce the hatred for the US.


All in all I think McCain is right. Al Qaeda may try and influence the election (just as OBL gave that speech that helped George Bush in 2004). He wants to see the US in Iraq for the next 100 years.