Reply #19: According to all emperical data out there, if the election were held today, yes.

[BzaDem]

The generic ballot snows a range of tied to +6 for Republicans (a range found by many pollsters). Translating this result to house seats, that means at least a likely 30 seat loss, where the upper bound is probably 70 or more. Looking at past elections with similar generic ballot readings is helpful; ALL indicate a massive loss in the House.

Your "evidence" that Democrats won't lose lots of seats isn't really "evidence," it is wishful thinking. Looking at actual, objective evidence, Democrats would get destroyed if the election were held today.

However, the election will not be held today. Anything could change by November. Democrats could regain the favor of Independents, and might limit their losses. The economy could boom. Or the economy could tank and the election could look even worse than if it were held today. No one knows or can claim to know. But as of today, Democrats are in very rough shape, your sadness about short memories notwithstanding.